The American Friends Service Committee (AFSC)
END -TERM PROGRAM EVALUATION – Somalia
END -TERM PROGRAM EVALUATION
SOMALIA PROGRAM: YOUTH DEVELOPMENT AND LIVELIHOOD PROGRAM
Project title: ; Somalia Peace Program-Youth Development and Livelihood program -1st October 2018 to 30th September 2021.
1. Background
The American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) is a Quaker organization that includes people of various faiths who are committed to shift the mindsets that prioritize militarized approaches over peaceful and people-centered solutions, promotes sustainable economic systems that benefit everyone, rather than those that favor the wealthy and exacerbate inequality and environmental crises and challenges forced displacement and champions the dignity and rights of all people on the move.
With a vision of a just, peaceful, and sustainable world free of violence, inequality, and oppression and a mission Guided by the Quaker belief in the divine light of each person, AFSC works with communities and partners worldwide to challenge unjust systems and promote lasting peace. As such We respect the equality, worth, and dignity of all people and regard no one as our enemy, seek right relationship with all life on a sustainable Earth, accepts that our understanding of truth is incomplete and seek ever deeper insights from lived experience, we trust the Spirit to guide discernment of our collective actions. We assert the transforming power of love and active nonviolence as a force for justice and reconciliation.
2. Somalia context
The Republic of Somalia was formed in 1960 by the federation of a former Italian colony and a British protectorate. Siyaad Barre held dictatorial rule over the country from October 1969 until January 1991, when he was overthrown in a civil war waged by clan-based guerrillas. After Siad’s fall from power, warfare continued and the country lacked an effective centralized government —problems that have persisted into the 21st century. Moreover, a de facto government declared the formation of an independent Republic of Somaliland in the north in 1991. Similarly, in 1998 the autonomous region of Puntland (the Puntland State of Somalia) was self-proclaimed in the northeast.
Decades of hostilities have virtually destroyed Somalia’s economy and infrastructure and split the country into areas under the rule of various entities. When Somalia’s transitional administration handed power to a new government in 2012, the newly declared Federal Republic of Somalia had only limited control over the country. There was, however, hope that the new government would usher in a new era, one in which peace would be achieved and Somalis could focus on rebuilding their country.
Roughly two-fifths of the Somali population live permanently in settled communities; the other three-fifths are nomadic pastoralist or agropastoralists.
Both the three-year project in Somalia and the end term evaluation are funded by Misereor and implemented in partnership with two partner organizations namely Juba Foundation (JF)-Kismayo- Lower Juba population with a population of : 471,000 and Refugee Consortium of Kenya (RCK) – Dadaab Refugees camps in North eastern Kenya with a population of 220,529. The camp hosts 95% Somali refugees. In addition the program builds the capacity of another two partners- Wajir South Development Agency ( WASDA) and Juba Foundation Mogadishu.
2.2 The life situation of the people in the planned project area
Somalia is one of the world’s most fragile and poorest countries. Decades of protracted armed conflict in Somalia, coupled with drought, famine and the constant emergence of armed groups have left the country suffering one of the world’s worst humanitarian and human right crises. The conflict and the long absence of central government has led to fragmentation and incapacity in important public institutions and structures to deliver basic social services such as education, health, economic opportunities among others further exacerbating poverty and unemployment in the country. Even though all categories of the Somali population including the elderly, the women, men, boys and girls were affected by the protracted conflicts, those whose present and future were affected the most were youth.
Between 2018 and 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, Somalia’s gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have grown at 2.8% and 2.9% respectively. Growth was mainly consumption-driven, enabled by large remittance and aid inflows (estimated at US$1.4 billion and US$2 billion respectively), while construction, telecommunications, and money transfer services have been the key growth sectors. Given the global economic slowdown, Somalia’s dependence on aid and remittances presents significant risks to growth. These factors, coupled with low skills, low savings, high poverty, insecurity, institutional weaknesses, vulnerability to climate-related shocks, debt distress, and restrictions on borrowing compound the risks.
Kismayo
Kismayo is the third largest metropolitan area in southern Somalia after Mogadishu and Baidoa, with approximately 30 sub-clans making it one of the most diverse cities in Somalia. This necessitates interventions for peaceful co-existence among the different sub-clans, returnees, IDPs and community members who never left Somalia. Migration has continuously changed the ethnic composition of Juba region. Significant has been the movement of Somali clans from north-east Somalia and eastern Ethiopia since the mid-1850s, as well as the relocation caused by the industrial development in the 1970s and 80s and, more recently, resettlement forced by conflict, drought and floods. This evolving situation affects the region’s politics, access and distribution of resources with a key profound competitive undercurrent between the guri (local) versus the gelti (outsider).Focus on migration and human trafficking is a key component of future interventions, as possible migrant youth are frequently unaware of their rights and the risks associated with migration and human trafficking.
Currently, as a port city, influence in Kismayo is contested by several groups including political parties, businessmen and militia who have one main interest: controlling income from taxation of the port and airport activities which have the potential to generate high tax revenue. The charcoal industry is of main economic importance to Kismayo and the whole country at large and it represents the largest natural resource for export. Charcoal remains the most affordable and reliable source of fuel for most Somali households. It also serves as a main livelihood activity (cutting trees, charcoal burning, packaging and selling) for the urban and rural poor. There is also high interest from higher income groups, transporters, exporters and militia in the trade of charcoal. The high population growth of the city and the profit motive have had negative impacts on the environment through the over-exploitation of resources, including offshore fisheries and deforestation of large tracts of land in the southern sector near the border of Somalia and Kenya.
Besides charcoal production and fishing, seasonal farming and the port provide employment for the residents of the city. The availability of livelihood activities makes Kismayo an attractive destination for those seeking employment and income generating opportunities. Currently, the urban economy of Kismayo shows characteristics of rapid development. Due to the increased stability, there is a great deal of money being channelled into investments in the town, from international companies, humanitarian agencies, and the diaspora, with some moving back to invest. The most dynamic sectors of Kismayo’s urban economy are: construction as people are reconstructing homes (also propelled by humanitarian aid and projects) and business premises; the retail sector due to imports/exports from Dubai and other countries; telecommunication – several companies provide telecommunication services and there is good internet coverage; finally the hospitality sector (hotels and restaurants) which is booming with some premises reopening after many years.
In Jubaland, control of the province can be regarded as divided between the Jubaland administration and the Al-Shabaab militia group. Al-Shabaab is in control of the rural areas and has a hidden presence in most urban centers, while the Jubaland administration with the assistance of AMISOM and bilateral Ethiopian troops (ENDF) is in control of most urban centres. Kismayo urban centre is regarded as an AMISOM/SNA controlled area. Formal security is offered as a combined effort between the police and military troops with support from AMISOM. This formal system however faces challenges such as the lack of uniforms and/or official logos to identify the police. This leads to lack of faith and trust in the police by the residents as they cannot easily differentiate them from the militia.
Dadaab
The Dadaab refugee complex has a population of 220,529 registered refugees and asylum seekers as well as an estimated 16,671 undocumented migrants as at 31st October 2020 . Dadaab refugee complex consists of three camps. The first camp was established in 1991, when refugees fleeing the civil war in Somalia crossed the border into Kenya. A second large influx occurred in 2011, when some 130,000 refugees arrived, fleeing drought and famine in southern Somalia
The three original Dadaab camps are Dagahaley, Ifo and Hagadera. The first two are located in Lagdera (Dadaab) district while Hagadera is located in the neighbouring Fafi district. A large part of the residents in these camps arrived in Dadaab in the 1990s and have children and grandchildren born in the camps. The camps resemble naturally-grown towns and have developed into commercial hubs connecting north-eastern Kenya and southern Somalia. During the Horn of Africa famine in 2011, two new camps, Ifo 2 and Kambioos were established to cater for the influx. These two camps have, however, been closed with the reduction of the numbers in Dadaab as a result of the voluntary return programme.
85,067 Somalis have been assisted by UNHCR and partners to voluntarily return to Somalia between December 2014 and 31 December 2019. Voluntary repatriation continues for Somalis and other nationalities if the situation permits in the countries of origin. The operation works with the assumption that the situation in Central and Southern Somalia will continue to allow voluntary repatriation and reintegration with no major further deterioration. For these reasons, the planning figure for voluntary return to Somalia was 7,000 in 2020. However, the current COVID-19 pandemic has affected the voluntary repatriation programme and no assisted returns to Somalia have happened in 2020.
With severe mobility constraints and limited livelihood options, humanitarian assistance continues to be a vital lifeline for refugees. But surviving on a bare minimum of assistance means many have been living on the threshold of an emergency for close to three decades now. Their needs far outstrip what dwindling humanitarian assistance can provide for in the face of waning donor funding. Psychosocial support for the refugees population is important for continued trauma healing and peaceful co-existence in the camp and whenever the refugees return to Somalia.
The three-year Somalia Peace Program-Youth Development and Livelihood program Phase3 which ends in September 2021 is due for final/end term evaluation. The exercise will be valuable to inform the next phase and improve outcomes for the Somali youth. It will also explain program’s Relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, Impact, and sustainability. Information collected will be used to improve current and future program design and implementation.
3.0 Evaluation Objective
3.1 Purpose, objectives and uses of the evaluation to inform project stakeholders
The overall objective of the end term evaluation is to assess the achievement of the project objectives, its outcomes as well as assess the program’s performance, effectiveness, impact, efficiency, relevance, timeliness, and sustainability.
The project set out to contribute to the following goal “Somalia youths assume responsibilities and leading roles in their communities and actively participate in non-violent and innovative community-based initiatives, thus contributing towards building peaceful and safe communities in Somalia” and the objectives below.
- By 2021, Young Somalis in Kismayo and Dadaab promote community healing and peace building through youth-led consultative spaces and economic development.
- By 2021 four youth networks are engaged in advocacy for issues affecting youth locally and regionally in Somalia.
- Two local partners have improved their skills in planning, implementation, and monitoring of their youth activities.
AFSC has used the following methods during implementation; Partnership and accompaniment, Continuous analysis monitoring to ensure learning among partners and with other peace actors, Public Achievement Model (PA) to mobilize and develop youth leadership skills to play a key role in peacebuilding, reconciliation, social change, and democracy through engaging the youth and helping them understand issues affecting them within their communities, Annual partners meetings attending partnership meetings and managing relationships with target groups:
3.3 Scope of Evaluation
The evaluation will gauge the level of community and other stakeholder participation and ownership of the implementation process. It shall identify the intended and unintended outcomes, best practices, lessons learned as well as challenges arising from programme implementation. In addition, the evaluation will come up with conclusions and recommendations.
3.4 The specific evaluation objectives are as follows.
a) To assess the program’s relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability.
b) To verify the objectives achievement both qualitatively and quantitatively.
c) To verify the activities implementation and the results achievement according to the expectations.
d) To highlight success stories and uncover relevant learnings evident from the program implementation.
3.5 Key Evaluation Questions based on DAC Criteria[1]**
a) Were the activities relevant, and were they implemented in an appropriate, effective, and efficient manner?
b) What were the key program outputs and outcomes, and to what extent did the program activities contribute to the outcomes?
c) What capacity building activities have been undertaken to strengthen implementing partners and how did they contribute to achieving the program objective?
d) To what extent did the program lead to peace building in the areas of intervention?
e) How were women and other vulnerable groups involved in the program?
f) What were the major factors influencing the achievement or non-achievement of the objectives?
Impact:
a) What has happened because of the project? (Intended and unintended impacts, equal opportunities for women and men, improvement of social and economic infrastructure, poverty reduction, cross – sectoral impact or other relevant cross-cutting issues).
b) What real difference has the activity brought about for the beneficiaries? (What would have happened without the activity?
c) How many people have been affected? Planned target group vis à vis really addressed?
d) What are the short and medium term (intended and unintended) outcomes of the project/ program?
e) To what extent was the selected target groups reached?
Sustainability of the project:
a) To what extent will the positive impacts or changes of the project (are likely to) continue?
b) Which measures are implemented to support continuity?
c) What are the major factors influencing the achievement or non-achievement of sustainability of the project/ program?
d) To what extend is the program exit strategy relevant?
The results of this external evaluation will be used internally and externally. The report will be made available electronically to AFSC staff, current and potential partners, and the donor (Misereor).
4.0 Evaluation Methodology, process, and reporting
The evaluation will involve participatory methodologies and tools. The evaluator will creatively employ a mix of techniques for data collection and will among others hold meetings and discussions, key informant interviews with the project partners, direct beneficiaries and AFSC staff.
AFSC will make accessible project documents for review and secondary data collection. The documents will include the project proposal and budget, cooperation agreement, partnership documents, baseline study report, activity reports, AFSC internal and donor reports.
5.0 Evaluation process and timeline
The evaluation will be carried out in the month of July. While the evaluator will propose and negotiate the number of days to carry out the work, the report should be ready by 31st July.
- 6. Proposal Submission Requirements
All proposals must be received by 5:00 pm Kenyan time, June 30th, 2021. Proposals received after this time will not be given primary consideration. A cover letter and proposal with budget and timeline should go to the Country Representative, Somalia, at InfoAfrica@afsc.org . Proposals should include the complete scope of work and deliverables including the following sections:
a. Organization/Evaluator Background
Include the organization and/or individual’s name. Describe the general nature of work and the name of the reviewer that will be conducting the work. Describe any International peacebuilding and development experience, education, skills, and languages. Proposals must include three examples of related work completed and contact information for the organizations served.
b. Statement of Proposed Work
State in succinct terms an understanding of the work to be completed. Describe the methodologies proposed to complete the evaluation and a final report including a time frame for completion of specific tasks, the personnel needed to complete tasks, and expectations for support and assistance from AFSC. Describe the work plan for the review. Proposal may also include other activities deemed necessary by the evaluators and specified within the work plan.
Key Deliverables
The following outputs are expected from the consultant:
Inception report upon signing a contract, submit an inception report detailing the evaluation design, methodology and data collection tools to be discussed and agreed upon with AFSC.
Produce a draft report; The end-term evaluation report including stories of change and lessons learnt
- Final end-term evaluation report and case study report incorporating comments from the reviewers.
The reports should include a detailed lesson learned component, most significant change stories and a list of all people interviewed in the annex. While the evaluators are expected to work independently, Somalia Program officer and Country Representative will assist in facilitating access to evaluation participants, documents, and solving problems and concerns that may develop throughout the course of the review. AFSC staff could help arrange transport and accommodation as needed and with prior approval of the Somalia Country Representative.
c. Budget and Deliverables
Provide a detailed budget as well as a description of the specific deliverables that will be submitted and expected schedule of compensation.
d. Evaluation Schedule
The proposal should include a workplan showing how the evaluation will be carried out.
Proposal Evaluation Procedures
After having received the responses from the applicants, a consultant will be selected based on an appropriate selection process in consultation with the Country Representative Somalia, Regional Director for Africa, and the international program support staff as needed. A signed agreement should be processed with the selected consultant and in accordance with AFSC vendor practices.
Profile of Evaluation Team
The Evaluation consultant should be fluent in English, spoken and written, have strong analytical skills, good listening and discernment skills, and proven experience in evaluating peace programs. Somali experience would be an added advantage.
Expected profile of consultant.
i. Advanced university degree in relevant field.
ii. At least 5 -7 years of experience conducting similar assignments.
iii. Extensive experience in field research in Somalia.
iv. Excellent research, report writing and analytical skills.
v. Well conversant with qualitative methods of research.
vi. Proven capacity to write analytically, understandable, and simple reports.
vii. Experience of working with secondary data analysis/desk reviews.
viii. Experience of developing research tools and carrying out research.
ix. Advanced knowledge of the new trends and developments in Somalia.
x. Ability to provide clear guidance to field research teams.
Xi Proven ability to deliver against targets and meeting deadlines within short timeframe.
Xii Relevant computer skills: Word, Excel, internet, Power point.
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