Terms of Reference (ToR)– Economic Threshold Study**

SomReP/World Vision Somaliland

Programme name **

Somali Resilience Programme (SomReP)

Target Location

SomReP target locations: 23 districts

Programme Goal

Increase the resilience of chronically vulnerable Somali people, households, communities and systems to climatic shocks and other related risks in targeted pastoral, agro-pastoral and peri-urban livelihood zones by 2023

Specific Objective

Sustainably improve food security and livelihoods of Somali people, households, communities through effective risk management, protection of productive assets, improved governance of resilience structures, and promotion of innovations and evidence based programming.

 

Intermediary Outcomes

1. Improved capacity of households to implement disaster risk reduction t and positive coping strategies to mitigate the immediate effect of exposure to shock;
2. Improved capacity of individuals, households and communities to adhere to positive development trajectories; despite exposures to shocks and utilize strategies designed to allow adaptation to rapid and slow on-set hazards;
3. Improved capacity of households to engage in strategies for sustainable livelihoods and economic growth to enhance food security and resilience;
4. governance structures at community, district and national levels are strengthened to enhance participation, transparency and accountability;
5. Programming, policy actions and decisions on resilience in its operations informed on evidence based resilience research, learning and innovation

 

Study type

Economic Thresholds Study

Purpose

To establish economic thresholds required for the households become economically empowered to enable them to take off and overcome challenges that hinder their capacities to engage in high levels of productivity and income and achieve economies of scale.

Primary methods

· Document review

· Qualitative methods

· Quantitative methods

Start and end date

To be determined during contracting

 

Anticipated reporting date

To be determined during contracting

 

1.0 Background

Somali Resilience Programme (SomReP) is a consortium of seven international NGOs namely Action Contre La Faim (ACF), the Adventist Development and Relief Agency International (ADRA), Cooperative Assistance for Relief Everywhere (CARE), Cooperazione Internazionale (COOPI), Danish Refugee Council (DRC), Oxfam and World Vision Somalia whose aim is to tackle the challenge of mitigating the effects of recurrent shocks and stressors and alleviating the chronic vulnerability that is common among pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, and peri-urban households across Somalia. With support from DFAT, EU and SDC, SomReP has for the past six years implemented a number of interventions through DFAT 5, EU Bay and Lower Shabelle, EU SWS and SDC projects with the aim of enhancing the resilience of vulnerable populations.

SomReP’s economic growth model adopts a push-pull strategy which is premised on the notion that for the households who are trapped in poverty or are generally poor to gain momentum towards high levels of productivity and income they will require some push to take off –to overcome the various discontinuities and indivisibilities in the economy and offset the diseconomies of scale. And once they have taken off for these households to remain on positively trajectory of economic growth, there is a need for enabling environment that facilitates the development of factors which pull the households to participate in better opportunities for trade, and encourage their participation in tertiary industries and ultimately ensures that economic gains are replicated at scale. SomReP push interventions focusses on equipping households, groups and communities with cash, assets, skills, and structures to better manage risks, improve productive practices, diversify livelihoods and prepare for market entry on fair and equitable terms. It has instruments such as crisis modifier which protects resilience gains and quickens return to productive activities following shocks to support graduation to higher levels of individual and group capacity. SomReP interventions on the other hand aims to build/strengthen systems through the identification of bottlenecks and market failures and supports such as credit, institutional strengthening, and facilitating the establishment of networks to overcome barriers to create demand for the products and services which households and communities generate. The figure x below describes underlying components of SomReP’s push and pull strategy and its associated interventions.

Model: SomReP Push-Pull Strategy

2.0 Objectives of the assignment

The objective of the assignment is to establish economic thresholds required for the households become economically empowered to enable them to take off and overcome challenges that hinder their capacities to engage in high levels of productivity and income and achieve economies of scale.

· To establish economic thresholds required for households to become economically empowered to enable them climb the economic trajectory ladder toward economic growth

· To identify sustainable economic pathways for the vulnerable (poorest) households in somalia to “graduate” out of extreme poverty in a time-bound manner.

· To determine the factors (enablers and supporters) that significantly impact on household graduation pace and pattern from the lowest economic ladder to highest economic ladder

· To provide recommendation on intervention mix that offer optimal sustainable economic pathways for vulnerable households facing extreme poverty

3.0 Scope of the assignment

This study seeks to utilize both qualitative and quantitative approaches to answer the pertinent research questions of this study which are: What are the economic thresholds that are required for households to climb the economic trajectory ladder towards economic growth? What are the sustainable economic pathways for vulnerable households in Somalia to graduate out of extreme poverty in a time bound manner? And finally, which factors have significant impact on households’ graduation pace and pattern from lowest economic ladder to highest income ladder?

To address these research questions, the consultant shall apply the relevant economic theories to define the economic ladder for Somali communities and establish the economic thresholds at any stage in the economic ladder. The consultant shall also undertake a thorough review of push-pull interventions that SomReP is implementing and how each and mix of interventions is contributing to households’ economic empowerment to climb the economic trajectory ladder at different stage. Key to this process will be to use scientifically methodologies to identify a mix interventions at each stage that have would accelerate the graduation process and safeguarding measures that can be adopted to avoid fall back. SomReP believes that a successful strategy of poverty reduction must have at its core measures to promote rapid and sustained economic growth and the challenge for development practitioners is to combine growth promoting strategies and strategies that allow the poor to participate fully in the opportunities unleashed so that they can become active contributors to the growth. Such strategies which are referred as pull strategies in SomReP aim at: improving market access and ensuring market work better for all farmers; removing gender inequalities; and increasing financial inclusion. This study therefore will therefore play a critical role in monitoring the effectiveness and assessing the impact of the push-pull strategy on Somali households’ and communities’ economic growth.

4.0 Research Methodology

The consultant will need to conduct a thorough literature review of the applicable economic theories on which to base the chosen econometric approaches. The consultant will also need to review SomReP strategy and existing progress and evaluation reports to have a better understanding of programme approaches and interventions implemented in Somalia.

While it is suggested that both qualitative and quantitative approaches should be used, the consultant is free to recommend with justification the approaches that they think are very relevant to addressing the research objectives.

5.0 Study Population and Sampling Frame

The study population will comprise of programme beneficiaries from the SomReP operational districts and villages and key informants at the community, district and institutional level. The sampling unit will be a village and the villages will be stratified first by district and then by livelihood zone. The programme will provide to the consultant a list of beneficiaries[1] reached in each village.

6.0 Assessment Management and Reporting

The consultants will lead to undertake the assignment will report directly to the Head of Quality Assurance Manager for SomReP who will oversee the assignment. SomReP will also engage government staff from Ministry of Planning and National Development (MoNPD) and focal point persons in the government ministries to support monitoring of data collection and ensure quality control.

6.1 Authority and Responsibility.

6.1.1 SomReP

· Ensure that the consultant(s) and the participants adhere to child protection policy

· Ensure quality assurance throughout the period of assignment

· Provide the selected consultant(s) with necessary documents to enable undertake the assignment

· Coordinate field visits and link consultants with field staff, Implementing partners and other stakeholders to ensure effective accomplishment of set tasks

· Review and approve inception report, data collection methodology and tools.

· Approve/disapprove the draft and final report for payments upon the report meeting specified requirements

6.1.2 Consultant

· Develop inception report before actual roll out of the study that shall detail the methodology and appropriate/relevant data collection tools.

· Work closely with SomReP Head of Quality Assurance Manager during the design of the methodology/ tools; agree on the tools that will be used.

· Incorporate feedback into tools and inception reports which will be given from the SomReP team.

· Train enumerators, guide and supervise enumerators, if need be, during data collection in the field.

· Conduct interviews

· Approximately one hour PowerPoint presentation of results and discussions to be delivered at an agreed place, Mogadishu or Hargeisa.

· Do de-briefing on preliminary findings. The result is expected to be shared with the stakeholders and the consultant needs to give due attention for the quality of the report.

· Submit draft and final reports as per schedule

· Submit a summary brief of the results (not more than 20 pages)

7.0. Standards of Ethics and Child Protection

The lead consultant will be responsible for ensuring that data collection and analysis approaches are designed to mitigate child protection risks and protect participants’ privacy and wellbeing by establishing and following credible ethical evaluation principles:

· The lead consultant shall ensure that all research team members including research assistants are oriented on research ethics and child protection policy prior to commencement of data collection.

· The lead consultant shall ensure that each member of the research team adheres to research ethics and child protection policies.

· The lead consultant shall ensure that every piece of information collected is treated with all the confidentiality that it deserves.

· The lead consultant shall ensure that survey participants to be involved in the study are well informed of the objectives of the study and their consent is sought prior to starting data collection. Participants will be informed of their rights to decline participation in the evaluation and that they will be at liberty to withdraw from the process if they wish to do so.

8.0 Logistics

All the expenses of the assignment will be the responsibility of the consultant. The consultant will therefore need to provide an itemised budget that covers both professional fees and operational costs. SomReP will only support the travel arrangements for the government staff where applicable during the monitoring visits. The expected timeframe for the assignment is provided below:

9.0 The desired profile of the Consultant

A technical expert/firm with demonstrable knowledge and experience in development studies is required for this assignment. He/she should have:

· Demonstrated knowledge and understanding of economic theories and poverty analysis

· A minimum of 5- years proven experience in conducting evaluations or economic development research using both qualitative and quantitative approaches

· A minimum experience of 3 years in econometric modelling

· Having a first-hand knowledge of socio-cultural, economic, political situation in Somalia or in a similar conflict-ridden country with high vulnerability to droughts is an advantage.

· Advanced degree in economics, development studies, or a related field.

10.0 VALUATION CRITERIA

A. Mandatory Requirements evaluation

I. Provide a certified copy of a certificate of business registration, Certificate of incorporation, business license or similar document (Companies/Organizations)

II. Provide a certified copy of tax registration, tax clearance certificates or similar documents (Companies/Organization)

III. Individual tax registration documents (for individual consultants)

IV. Provide information on ownership structure (Name of directors of the company / Owner) (Companies/Organization)

V. Provide last two years of audited financial statements or tax filing, or similar documents (Companies/Organization)

VI. Provide references from previous clients for similar works, At least three.

B. Technical Evaluation Criteria

Applications received will be evaluated against a combination of the following criteria:

I. Understanding of the TOR (General understanding of the project requirements; coverage of principal components as stipulated in the ToR)

II. Methodology (Adequacy of the proposed approach, methodology and work plan in line with ToR)

III. Qualification, experience and proposed team composition. A consultant/firm with a combination of Somali Researchers is highly encouraged.

IV. Previous experience(s) with similar assignments in a fragile context or in Somalia in particular

V. Track record of successful completion of past similar assignments

VI. Willingness and flexibility to work within the required deadline

C. FINANCIAL EVALUATION

I. A financial proposal with a detailed breakdown of costs for the study quoted in United States dollars.

II. Payment Terms

III. Credit Period

IV. Any other cost related to the consultancy

11.0 Application Process

All interested bidders are requested to submit their Technical Proposals and Financial Proposals in Separate documents as attachments (Bidders who will combine both technical and financial proposals shall be disqualified) via somo_supplychain@wvi.org on or before 20th May 2021.

Bids received after deadline shall not be considered.

Email title should be; – Economic Threshold Study Consultancy Service

Your financial proposal should have your professional fee and any other related cost well tabulated. Financial proposal should not be part of the technical proposal, it should be a separate document

Note:

As part of the Consultant selection process, the best candidates will be required to make a presentation of the technical proposal to the Supply Chain and Core Project Technical Team to inform the final decision on the award of the contract.

[1] A household is considered a beneficiary if they have participated in any of the interventions implemented by SomReP.